Highlights

• • Home implied probability by market ~38% vs our 40% estimate
• • Positive EV of roughly 5.2% at current home price (2.63)

Pros

• + Current price (2.63) is above our fair threshold (2.50)
• + Connor’s limited match history increases variance — potential for market mispricing

Cons

• - Devin has more matches and a better win sample; he is the likely favorite on form
• - Small sample sizes and limited detailed match data increase model uncertainty

Details

We find value backing the home player, Connor Henry Van Schalkwyk. The market prices Devin Badenhorst as a strong favorite (away 1.44 implied ~69.4%), but the objective data in the research shows Devin has a larger sample (62 matches, 33-29, recent activity) while Connor has a very small sample (13 matches, 6-7) with limited recent recorded results. Both have hard-court experience. Given Devin's activity and slightly better career win rate we respect him as the stronger player, but the market appears to overstate his win probability at ~69%. We estimate Connor's true probability at 40% (Devin ~60%), which implies fair decimal for Connor is 2.50. The offered price of 2.63 exceeds that threshold, producing a positive expected value: EV = 0.40 * 2.63 - 1 = +0.052 (5.2% ROI). Key considerations supporting this view: small-sample variance for Connor can understate his chance, Devin’s higher activity and match volume don’t justify the market's nearly 70% probability given available form data, and both players have hard-court experience so surface does not heavily favor Devin. No injuries or disqualifying factors are reported. We therefore recommend taking the home moneyline at current prices because it offers a modest positive edge.

Key factors

• • Market implies Devin has ~69% win chance, which appears overstated vs. available form data
• • Connor’s small sample size (13 matches) creates higher uncertainty and potential undervaluation
• • Both players have hard-court experience so surface does not dramatically shift expectation