Highlights

• • Market implied probability (85%) > our estimate (72%) — no value
• • Home player has losing overall record and limited recent wins

Pros

• + Wendelken’s superior career win rate and broader surface experience favor him to win
• + Market consensus aligns with form, reducing likelihood of large pricing inefficiency

Cons

• - Current favorite price (1.176) is too short versus our true probability — negative EV
• - Limited specific match context (surface, H2H) increases outcome uncertainty

Details

We estimate Harry Wendelken is the stronger player based on a substantially better win-loss record (35-24 vs 21-28) and more consistent recent results across surfaces. The market prices Wendelken at decimal 1.176 (implied ~85.0%); we believe his true win probability is closer to 72.0%, which makes the current favorite price too short and negative expected value. Given limited surface/H2H information and both players having experience on clay/hard, the gap looks real but not large enough to justify backing the favorite at 1.176. Therefore we recommend no bet at the current prices.

Key factors

• • Wendelken has a substantially better overall win-loss record (35-24 vs 21-28)
• • Both players have mixed recent results; Wendelken looks more consistent but not overwhelmingly so
• • Market implies ~85% for Wendelken; our estimate ~72% indicates no value at current price