Cooper Williams vs Murphy Cassone
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see a small value on Murphy Cassone at 1.476 (EV ≈ +3.3%) due to superior experience, hard-court form, and serving profile versus Williams' lower-level results.
Highlights
- • Cassone implied 67.7% by market; we estimate ~70%
- • Small positive edge: EV ≈ 3.3% at current price
Pros
- + Higher-level recent play and experience on hard courts
- + Strong serving/ace metrics that suit the surface
Cons
- - Edge is small — outcome variance in tennis can erase gains in single bets
- - Limited direct head-to-head data and some recent match uncertainty
Details
We compare the market-implied probability (Cassone 1.476 => 67.7%) to our estimated true probability. Cassone has a larger sample size, more wins overall, and recent matches at higher-level events (including a US Open appearance) on hard courts, plus strong serving/ace metrics in recent play, which favors him on this hard-court Winston Salem match. Williams has a strong win-rate in a small sample but recent results are mixed and mainly at lower-level M15/M25 events, which suggests a step up in class for this matchup. Given those factors we estimate Cassone's true win probability at ~70%, which is slightly higher than the market-implied 67.7%, producing a small positive expected value at the current away decimal of 1.476.
Key factors
- • Cassone considerably larger match sample and proven at higher-level hard-court events
- • Recent strong serving/ace numbers for Cassone favor him on hard courts
- • Williams' results mainly at lower-level events with mixed recent form
- • Market-implied probability (67.7%) is slightly below our 70% estimate