Highlights

• • Williams estimated true win probability 52% vs market-implied 48.5%
• • Positive EV at current home price 2.06 (EV ≈ 7.1%)

Pros

• + Market underestimates Williams relative to his supplied win-loss record
• + Current price (2.06) provides a cushion against modest model error

Cons

• - No grass-surface history provided for either player, raising uncertainty
• - Small sample sizes and recent mixed form limit confidence in the edge

Details

We estimate Cooper Williams is slightly undervalued by the market. The market prices Raphael Perot as the favorite (implied ~58.0%) while Cooper Williams is at ~48.5%. From the provided profiles Williams has a superior overall win-loss rate (17-6 ≈ 74% career win rate across his short span) versus Perot (18-10 ≈ 64%); neither player shows grass-specific history in the supplied data, so surface neutrality applies. Recent form in the provided matches is mixed for both, but Williams' better overall conversion rate and cleaner win-loss ratio justify a modest edge. We therefore estimate Williams' true win probability at ~52.0%, which is meaningfully higher than the market-implied 48.5% and yields positive expected value at the current home moneyline 2.06. We acknowledge the sample sizes and lack of grass-specific data increase uncertainty, so our edge is conservative.

Key factors

• • Cooper Williams has a better overall win-loss record in the supplied data (17-6 vs 18-10)
• • Market prices Perot as favorite despite lower overall win rate, creating a value gap
• • No grass-specific data for either player increases variance and limits confidence