Highlights

• • Fitriadi is the clear favorite by record and experience, but 1.20 overstates his edge vs Crowther in our model
• • Crowther's long odds (4.20) only become +EV if his win chance exceeds ~23.8%, which we do not forecast

Pros

• + Clear, consistent rationale comparing implied market probability to our estimated win probability
• + Conservative stance avoids wagers with negative expected value

Cons

• - Limited publicly-available match-level detail and no head-to-head data increases uncertainty
• - Recent-match stats provided are sparse and sometimes inconsistent, widening confidence intervals

Details

We compared the market prices to our internal win-probability estimate. The market makes Fitriadi M Rifqi a heavy favorite at 1.20 (implied 83.3%). Based on relative career records (Fitriadi ~11-14 vs Crowther ~5-17), both players' recent form (both arriving with recent losses on hard courts) and surface familiarity, we estimate Fitriadi's true win probability at ~78.0%. At that probability the fair decimal price would be ~1.282, which is longer than the current 1.20 quote, so the available favourite price offers negative expected value. The longshot (Corban Crowther) at 4.20 would require his true win probability to be >23.81% to be +EV; our model places him slightly below that threshold (~22.0%), so the underdog also shows negative EV. Therefore no side offers value at current quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Career win rates: Fitriadi materially better (11-14) vs Crowther (5-17)
• • Both players primarily recent matches on hard courts — neutral surface effect
• • Market pricing implies Fitriadi ~83% chance; our estimate ~78%, creating negative EV on favourite