Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for away = ~79.7%; our estimate = 86.0%
• • Positive EV at current odds: ~0.079 (7.93% ROI)

Pros

• + Strong market support for the away player aligns with Crowther's weak recent record
• + Clear numerical edge between our estimated probability and the implied market probability

Cons

• - We have limited direct data on Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi in the provided research, increasing model uncertainty
• - Single-match variance and thin ITF markets can produce short-term noise despite positive EV

Details

We estimate the market is underpricing the probability that Muhamad Rifqi Fitriadi wins. The current decimal price for the away player is 1.255 (implied probability ≈ 79.7%). Corban Crowther's recent form and career numbers are weak (5-17 overall, very poor recent results on hard courts), which supports a higher win probability for his opponent. Given the heavy market favoritism and lack of positive indicators for Crowther in the provided research, we estimate a true win probability for the away player materially above the market-implied 79.7%, creating value at the quoted 1.255 price. Using an estimated true probability of 86.0% produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.86 * 1.255 - 1 = 0.0793), so we recommend betting the away player at current prices.

Key factors

• • Corban Crowther's poor form and 5-17 career record in provided data
• • Market strongly favors the away player (implied ~79.7%), which we assess as underestimating true chances
• • Limited information on the away player increases uncertainty but market pricing suggests clear class advantage