Corentin Denolly vs Andrea Picchione
Tennis
2025-09-10 14:38
Start: 2025-09-11 08:00
Summary
No pick
EV: 0
Current Odds
Home 2.47|Away 1.59
Best Odds
Match Info
Match key: Corentin Denolly_Andrea Picchione_2025-09-11
Analysis
Summary: We find no value at current prices: the favorite (Picchione) is marginally overvalued by the market and the underdog (Denolly) is not priced high enough to offer positive EV.
Highlights
- • Market favorite (1.67) implies ~59.9% — we estimate ~58%
- • EV at current favorite price is slightly negative (~ -0.03)
Pros
- + Picchione has a marginally better record and recent clay results
- + Denolly can be competitive on clay and could be playable if price rises above ~2.50
Cons
- - Current prices do not offer positive expected value for either side
- - Limited clear edge from form or matchup to justify a contrarian wager
Details
We estimate Andrea Picchione is the slight favorite on clay based on a marginally better overall record and recent results, but the market price (1.67) implies ~59.9% and slightly overstates his edge versus our estimated true probability (~58%). The implied edge is negative (EV ≈ -0.03 at 1.67) so there is no positive-value play at the quoted prices. Corentin Denolly’s longer-term win rate is reasonable but his recent form appears weaker, and the 2.15 price does not offer enough value against our estimated true probability for him either.
Key factors
- • Both players are comfortable on clay; Picchione has a slightly stronger recent clay form
- • Market-implied probability for Picchione (~59.9%) is slightly higher than our estimated true probability (58%)
- • Denolly’s recent results look mixed and do not justify the 2.15 price as offering positive expected value