Highlights

• • Denolly priced at 2.02 vs our fair odds (~1.923) — small edge
• • Players have similar profiles; recent event activity favors Denolly

Pros

• + Undervalued by market relative to our probability model
• + Recent match activity at the same tournament suggests form/readiness

Cons

• - Edge is small and subject to variance — narrow margin of value
• - Limited differentiation in publicly available form and H2H data increases uncertainty

Details

We estimate a modest edge for Corentin Denolly versus Stefan Adrian Andreescu despite Andreescu being the book favorite at 1.77. Both players have nearly identical career records on similar surfaces, but Denolly's recent participation at the Targu Mures event (same surface) suggests better match readiness and slight form continuity. The market prices Denolly at 2.02 (implied 49.5%). We assess Denolly's true win probability at 52.0% based on comparable career records, clay experience, and being active in this tournament, which yields positive expected value versus the market price (EV = 0.52 * 2.02 - 1 = +0.050). Given the narrow margin, this is a small value play rather than a large certainty.

Key factors

• • Nearly identical career records but Denolly slightly better win-loss differential
• • Both players experienced on clay; Denolly has recent match activity at the Targu Mures event
• • Bookmaker favors Andreescu (1.77) whereas we see value on Denolly at 2.02