Highlights

• • Home odds (1.893) exceed our fair odds threshold (1.818) for Denolly
• • Surface familiarity (grass) is the primary driver of our edge

Pros

• + Denolly has explicit grass experience versus Andreescu's lack of grass history
• + Current odds provide a small positive expected value by our estimate

Cons

• - Both players have similar overall records and limited recent-form clarity, increasing uncertainty
• - Edge is modest and could be eroded by unlisted factors (fitness, match-up specifics)

Details

We see nearly identical market prices (Home 1.893, Away 1.909) that imply roughly a 52-53% chance for the home player. Comparing that to the available profile data, Corentin Denolly has recorded play on grass while Stefan Andreescu's listed surfaces do not include grass; that gives Denolly a surface-experience edge in an outdoor grass match. Their overall career records and recent results look broadly similar, so surface familiarity and home designation tilt true probability slightly toward Denolly. Converting our assessed win probability (55.0%) into required odds gives 1.818; the offered home price of 1.893 is above that threshold, producing a positive expected value. The edge is modest (about +4.1% ROI) and depends on limited surface/form information, so the recommendation is a small-value back on the home player at the current market price.

Key factors

• • Denolly has recorded play on grass while Andreescu has no grass listed
• • Market prices are almost even; bookmaker-implied probability for Denolly (~52.8%) is below our 55% estimate
• • Overall career records and recent form are similar, reducing large uncertainty but leaving surface as a tiebreaker