Corey Craig vs Alex Bulte
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Current odds (1.18) overvalue Corey Craig relative to the limited performance data; no value to back either side.
Highlights
- • Craig's provided record: 2-4 (small sample, recent losses)
- • Fair decimal for Craig estimated ~1.818 vs market 1.18 → negative EV
Pros
- + We avoid risking capital on an overpriced favorite
- + Clear quantitative gap between market-implied probability and our conservative estimate
Cons
- - Limited data increases uncertainty in our probability estimate
- - If missing information on Alex Bulte would change the view, our assessment could be off
Details
We find no value backing Corey Craig at the current moneyline. The market price of 1.18 implies a win probability of ~84.7%, but the only provided player data shows a very limited sample (6 career matches) with a 2-4 record and multiple recent losses, which does not support such a high true-win probability. With no information provided on Alex Bulte to justify a market skew and no surface/venue edge evident in the research, a conservative estimated true probability for Craig is 55%. At that estimate the fair price is ~1.818; the quoted 1.18 is far too short and produces a negative expected return. Because expected_value <= 0 at the current price, we recommend taking no side.
Key factors
- • Corey Craig has a very limited sample (6 matches) and a 2-4 record, indicating weak recent form
- • Market implies ~84.7% for Craig (1/1.18) which is not supported by the provided performance data
- • No information on Alex Bulte or clear surface/venue advantage to justify the heavy favorite price