Corey Craig vs Jan Sebesta
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: The favorite price (Corey Craig 1.07) is over-priced relative to the limited performance data; there is no positive EV at current odds, so we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Implied market probability for Craig is ~93.5% (odds 1.07)
- • Our estimated true win probability for Craig is ~75%, far below the market-implied level
Pros
- + Craig has experience on hard courts which may favor him if the match is on hard surface
- + Home/favorite status likely reflects additional non-public information priced into market
Cons
- - Small and weak win records for both players reduce confidence in any extreme market pricing
- - Current odds leave no margin for value — favorite is too short relative to plausible win probability
Details
The market price (Corey Craig 1.07) implies ~93.5% chance to win. Our assessment, using only the provided player profiles and recent results, values Craig much lower because his recorded sample is small and poor (2-4 overall with recent losses) while Jan Sebesta has limited but competitive results (1-1) on clay. Surface and venue are not specified for this USA match; Craig has played hard and clay while Sebesta's recorded matches are on clay, which tempers confidence but does not justify a 93% market probability. Given modelled true probability (~75%), the current favorite price of 1.07 offers negative expected value, so we decline to recommend a side.
Key factors
- • Very small sample sizes for both players (Craig 6 matches, Sebesta 2 matches)
- • Recent form favors neither decisively; Craig is 2-4 with recent losses, Sebesta 1-1 on clay
- • Market price (1.07) implies an extreme probability not supported by available performance data