Highlights

• • Implied probability at 1.03 is ~97.09%
• • We estimate true probability at 98.5%, yielding ~1.455% ROI

Pros

• + Clear form disadvantage for Campese supports heavy favoritism
• + Current price offers a small but positive expected value by our estimate

Cons

• - Edge is modest; small estimation errors can eliminate the value
• - Limited data on the opponent and match context increases uncertainty

Details

We see a clear mismatch between the market-implied probability for the away player (1.03 → implied 97.09%) and our assessment of the true win probability. Cristian Campese's record in the provided data is 1-10 with recent losses and limited match experience, which supports the view that his chance of winning is very small. Given the extremely short price on the away player and the absence of any evidence suggesting a meaningful risk (no injuries or adverse conditions reported in the research), we estimate the away player’s true win probability at 98.5%, which produces positive expected value at the quoted 1.03 price. We remain conservative because opponent details are not provided and sample sizes are small, so the edge is modest but positive.

Key factors

• • Campese career record 1-10 and recent losses indicate low win probability
• • Market price for away (1.03) implies ~97.09% — below our conservative estimate
• • Limited opponent/injury information increases uncertainty despite apparent value