Cristian Garin vs Aaron Gil Garcia
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Cristian Garin at 1.12 because his true win probability is materially higher than the market-implied probability given the mismatch in level and experience.
Highlights
- • Market-implied probability for Garin: ~89.3%; our estimate: 96%
- • Estimated ROI on a 1-unit stake: ~7.5%
Pros
- + Clear quality and experience advantage for Garin
- + Current price (1.12) is above our minimum fair odds (1.042), yielding positive EV
Cons
- - Heavy favorite markets can move quickly; line exposure is sensitive to late news (injury/withdrawal)
- - Upsets can occur in tennis; even a small chance of injury or poor start reduces realized profit
Details
The market implies Cristian Garin has ~89.3% chance to win (1/1.12). Our assessment, based on a large experience and results gap (Garin: 36-21 across 57 higher-level matches including Grand Slam appearances; Aaron Gil Garcia: 4-8 across 12 low-level events), assigns Garin a substantially higher true win probability. Aaron's limited match count and lower-level recent results (M15 events) make an upset unlikely. At our estimated true probability the book price of 1.12 offers positive edge: required fair odds for Garin (given our p) are ~1.042, and the available 1.12 is above that, producing positive expected value.
Key factors
- • Large gap in experience and competition level (Garin playing at Grand Slam level vs Aaron mainly in M15 events)
- • Career records: Garin 36-21 (much larger sample) vs Aaron 4-8 (small sample, inconsistent)
- • Market odds imply ~89.3% for Garin; our conservative true estimate is 96%, creating value at 1.12