Cristian Garin vs Alex Knaff
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices — Garin is the logical winner but 1.01 is too short to offer positive EV, and Knaff's price does not reflect a realistic upset probability.
Highlights
- • Garin is heavily favored by the market (1.01) reflecting a perceived near-certain outcome
- • Our estimated win probability for Garin (~97%) still falls short of the ~99% needed to justify a bet at 1.01
Pros
- + Garin's higher-level experience and recent ATP/Grand Slam matches strongly favor him
- + Low match variance expected given the mismatch in levels
Cons
- - Market price on Garin is extremely short, offering no value unless we believe in near-100% certainty
- - Longshot payout on Knaff requires an upset probability materially higher than our estimate to be profitable
Details
We see Cristian Garin as a clear favorite based on experience and level gap: ATP-level results and recent Grand Slam play contrast with Alex Knaff's mostly M15/M25-level results. The market price for Garin (1.01 decimal, implied ~99.01%) requires an almost-certain outcome to produce positive expected value. Our estimated true probability for Garin winning is ~97.0%, which would require minimum fair odds of ~1.031 to break even; the current price of 1.01 is shorter than that threshold, producing a small negative EV. The longshot (Knaff at 12.5) would need a true win probability of at least 8.0% to break even; given the level and form gap we estimate his chance far below that, so no value exists on the upset either. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices.
Key factors
- • Clear level and experience gap: Garin has ATP / Grand Slam match experience vs Knaff's M15/M25 results
- • Market is extremely short on Garin (1.01); breaks even only if win probability ≥ ~99.0%
- • Surface availability and recent form point to Garin edge but not absolute certainty