Highlights

• • Bookmaker's price for the favorite appears inflated given similar profiles
• • At our 45% estimate, the away returns ~0.4625 units EV per 1 unit staked

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price (3.25)
• + Both players' data points support a much closer matchup than the market implies

Cons

• - Limited detailed contextual data (H2H, injuries, precise surface for match) increases model uncertainty
• - Small-sample records and recent variance in challenger-level events raise volatility

Details

We see the market pricing Cristina Diaz Adrover at 1.30 (implied ~77%) which appears inconsistent with the available form data: both players have nearly identical career spans and 10-21 records, similar surface experience, and recent losses. There is no clear evidence of a large skill gap or injury that would justify such a large favorite. We estimate the true win probability for Marine Szostak at ~45%, which implies the fair decimal price ~2.22. At the available price of 3.25 the away side offers positive expected value (EV = 0.45*3.25 - 1 = 0.4625), so we recommend taking the away under a value-driven, tiered-odds approach.

Key factors

• • Market implies a ~77% chance for home which is much higher than form suggests
• • Both players have nearly identical records (10-21) and surface histories
• • No clear recent-performance or injury edge for the favorite; recent results show losses for both