Croatia vs France

Highlights

• • Estimated Croatia true win probability: 57%
• • Required decimal odds for positive EV: ≥ 1.754 (current: 1.685)

Pros

• + Home advantage in Davis Cup can be meaningful
• + Market shows Croatia as favorite, aligning with our lean

Cons

• - Small mismatch between our probability and market still produces negative EV at current odds
• - No match-specific player, surface, or injury data available to justify a larger edge

Details

We could not find external match-specific data, so we used conservative, context-aware priors: home-court advantage in Davis Cup ties typically shifts probability toward the host, but France historically fields deep teams. Given the market prices (Croatia 1.685, France 2.13) the market-implied probability for Croatia is about 59.4% (not normalized) and for France about 46.9%. After accounting for a modest home advantage and uncertainty from missing player/surface/injury details, we estimate Croatia's true win probability at 57.0%. At the current Croatia decimal price (1.685) that produces a small negative expected value (EV = 0.57 * 1.685 - 1 ≈ -0.040). The French price (2.13) also offers negative EV versus our priors. Because neither side shows positive EV at widely available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Home-court advantage in Davis Cup ties (crowd and surface choice) likely favors Croatia
• • Lack of available player-level, surface, and injury data increases uncertainty and argues for conservative probability estimates
• • Market prices imply a Croatia favorite but after our conservative adjustment there is no positive EV at current decimals