Highlights

• • Polmans priced ~77.2% by market; we assess ~79.0%
• • Edge is small (EV ≈ +0.023 per unit) but positive

Pros

• + Clearer experience and larger sample in favor of Polmans
• + Surface competence on hard courts supports slightly higher true probability

Cons

• - Small margin of value — outcome variance can erase the edge
• - Both players show recent losses, increasing uncertainty

Details

We compare the market-implied probability for Marc Polmans (1.295 => 77.2%) to our assessed win chance. Polmans has a larger match sample, a substantially better career record (24-20 vs 9-12) and proven play on hard courts and other surfaces, while Cruz Hewitt has limited matches and weaker recent results. Given those factors we estimate Polmans' true win probability at 79.0%, slightly above the market-implied 77.2%, producing a small positive edge at the available decimal price. The margin is small and subject to variance, but the current price (1.295) offers positive expected value under our model.

Key factors

• • Marc Polmans has a larger match sample and better win-loss record
• • Polmans has more experience and results on hard courts
• • Market-implied probability (77.2%) is slightly below our assessed probability (79%)