Cruz Hewitt vs Marc Polmans

Highlights

• • Market implies Cruz wins 33.3%; we estimate 39%
• • EV at current price is +0.17 (17% ROI on a 1-unit stake)

Pros

• + Cruz's career hard-court winrate provides a baseline above market-implied probability
• + Polmans' recent losses reduce the certainty behind the short price

Cons

• - Cruz's very recent form includes several losses which justify some price discount
• - Smaller sample sizes and volatility in lower-tier tennis increase upset risk

Details

We compare market-implied probabilities to our assessment from the provided player profiles. The market prices Marc Polmans at 1.35 (implied ~74.1%) and Cruz Hewitt at 3.00 (implied 33.3%). Cruz's career winrate on hard (9 wins in 21 matches → ~42.9%) provides a baseline that is substantially higher than the market-implied 33.3% chance; although his recent form shows losses, the baseline suggests the market may be overstating Polmans' edge. Polmans is the more experienced player with a better overall record (24-20, ~54.5%), which justifies favoritism, but his recent results also include losses and do not indicate dominance sufficient to justify a 74% win probability. We conservatively estimate Cruz's true win probability at 39.0%, which is above the market-implied 33.3%, producing positive expected value on the 3.00 quote. Using the current odds (3.00) EV = 0.39 * 3.00 - 1 = +0.17 (17% ROI). We therefore recommend taking the underdog (Cruz Hewitt) at the available 3.00 price because it represents value versus our estimated probability.

Key factors

• • Cruz Hewitt's baseline hard-court winrate (~42.9%) is meaningfully above the market-implied 33.3%
• • Marc Polmans has higher career volume and winrate (~54.5%) but recent results include losses and do not justify a ~74% market price
• • Both players show recent losing form, compressing true probabilities and creating value on the underdog if Cruz's baseline is respected