D. Blanch/C. Hernandez vs G. Gandolfi/L. Primucci
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend betting on the heavy favorite at 1.07 — the market price implies near-certainty that is not supported by Hernandez's poor recent form and the lack of data on partners/opponents.
Highlights
- • Home price 1.07 implies ~93.5% win probability
- • Our estimated true probability ~45% — large gap indicates no value
Pros
- + If D. Blanch is a much stronger doubles specialist (unknown), the market could be correct
- + Short price means limited upside but very low liability if one accepts market view
Cons
- - Hernandez's recent form and overall record do not support near-certain pricing
- - Insufficient data on doubles pairings and opponents increases model uncertainty
Details
The market prices the home pair at 1.07 (implied ~93.5%), which requires near-certainty. We find that implausible given the available research: C. Hernandez has a weak recent record (10-21 overall) and clearly poor recent results on hard courts; we have no constructive data on the skill or form of D. Blanch or the opponents (Gandolfi/Primucci) to justify market confidence. With such limited information and Hernandez's negative form signal, a realistic win probability for this pair is materially lower than the market-implied probability, so there is no value at the current price.
Key factors
- • Market implies ~93.5% for home at 1.07, which is extreme given available form data
- • C. Hernandez has poor singles record (10-21) and recent losses — weak form signal
- • No reliable information on partners or opponents to support the heavy favorite pricing