D. Blanch/C. Hernandez vs L. Cattaneo/A. Colombo

Highlights

• • Implied home probability at current odds: 28.6%
• • Our estimated true home probability: 22% → negative EV at current price

Pros

• + Market clearly differentiates a favorite and an underdog, making mispricing easier to spot if more info becomes available
• + If further evidence emerges that D. Blanch is a strong doubles partner, the home side could become a value target

Cons

• - Available data (Hernandez) points toward weakness rather than strength for the home duo
• - Significant unknowns (partner/opponent doubles form) make any bullish view speculative

Details

We compare the market price to our read of the match using only the provided data. The home odds of 3.50 imply a win probability of 28.6%; the away favourite at 1.27 implies 78.7%. The only concrete player data available is C. Hernandez's recent form (career record 10-21 and weak recent results), which suggests the pairing including Hernandez is the weaker side. Given Hernandez's poor singles/dated results and the complete lack of information on partner strength and the opponents, we estimate the true chance for the home duo to win is materially below the market-implied 28.6%. Using our estimated true probability (22%), the home price of 3.50 produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.22 * 3.5 - 1 = -0.23). Because we cannot justify a higher true win probability from the supplied research and the required fair odds to generate positive EV (≈4.545) are substantially above the current market, we do not recommend betting on either side at the present prices.

Key factors

• • C. Hernandez has a weak recent record (10-21) and poor recent match outcomes, lowering the duo's expected strength
• • Market heavily favors the away team (1.27); home would need >28.6% chance to be fair at 3.50, but our estimate is lower
• • No information on doubles form, partner quality (D. Blanch) or opponents' strengths increases uncertainty and argues against speculative value bets