Highlights

• • Home implied chance (94.3%) exceeds our estimate (90%) — no edge
• • Away price (8.5) would require >11.76% true chance to be profitable; we lack evidence to support that

Pros

• + Bookmaker strongly favors the home side, reflecting expected mismatch
• + S. Cohen's documented recent form is weak, supporting a home favorite outcome

Cons

• - Insufficient data on the home pairing and on doubles-specific form reduces confidence in any model advantage
• - Small margin between our estimate and book implied probability — even small errors flip EV sign

Details

The market makes the home pair heavy favorites at 1.06 (implied 94.34%). Our independent assessment, using the limited available player data, assigns the home team ~90% chance to win. That 90% estimate implies a fair price of ~1.111 decimal. Betting the home side at 1.06 yields negative expected value (EV = 0.90 * 1.06 - 1 = -0.046). We also considered the underdog (8.5) — to be profitable the away pair would need >11.76% true probability; available information on S. Cohen shows poor recent form and no clear doubles strengths, so we cannot justify that probability. Given the gap between our estimated true probability and the bookmakers' prices, there is no positive-value bet available at current odds.

Key factors

• • Market prices heavily favor the home team (1.06) implying ~94.3% win probability
• • Available performance data shows S. Cohen has a weak recent record (10-21 overall; recent losses), lowering confidence in the away pair
• • Significant information gap on doubles pairing quality and surface/venue specifics — increases model uncertainty