Highlights

• • Implied probability for away = 96.15%; our conservative estimate = 92%
• • Required minimum fair odds for the favourite to be +EV = 1.087; market is shorter at 1.04

Pros

• + We avoid a small expected loss by not backing an over-priced favourite
• + Conservative approach limits exposure when data is missing

Cons

• - If our true-probability estimate underrates the favourite, we miss a (small) positive edge
• - Extreme market skew means prices can move quickly; opportunity may disappear or reverse

Details

We compared the market price (Away 1.04 -> implied 96.15%) against a conservative estimated true win probability for E. Jaeger/F. Norin of 92%. At the quoted 1.04 decimal the expected return is slightly negative (EV = 0.92 * 1.04 - 1 = -0.043), so the favourite is over-priced relative to our conservative estimate. The home side (11.0) carries very long odds but our conservative assessment does not support a sufficiently high true probability to justify backing the underdog at that price. Given the absence of external form, surface, injury, and H2H data and the extreme market skew, we decline to recommend a play — value is not present at widely available prices.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favours away at 1.04 (implied ~96.2%)
• • No independent data returned; we use a conservative true probability estimate (92%)
• • At 1.04 the favourite yields negative EV; underdog odds (11.0) would require an unrealistically high true probability to be +EV