D. Gorska/E. Slavikova vs M. Masic/V. Veleva

Highlights

• • Market implies 83.3% for home (1.20); we estimate 80%
• • Required odds to break even at our estimate are 1.25; current odds are lower

Pros

• + Home is clearly favored by the market, suggesting a high probability of winning
• + Low variance outcome likely for the market favorite

Cons

• - Quoted odds are too short to offer value given a conservative assessment
• - No independent information (surface, form, injuries, H2H) to justify upping our probability estimate

Details

We have no independent data on surface, form, injuries, or H2H for these doubles teams, so we use a conservative probability assessment. The market price for the home pair (1.20) implies a win probability of ~83.3%. Given the lack of corroborating information, we assign a conservative true win probability of 80% for the home team. At that probability the fair break-even decimal odds are 1.25 (1 / 0.80). The current home price of 1.20 is below that threshold, producing a negative expected value (EV = 0.80 * 1.20 - 1 = -0.04). To have positive value at the quoted odds we would need to believe the home side's true win probability exceeds ~83.33%, which we do not with no additional evidence. Therefore we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • No independent data on surface, form, injuries or H2H — conservative estimate only
• • Market heavily favors the home side (implied 83.3% at 1.20)
• • Our conservative true probability (80%) is below the market-implied level, producing negative EV