Highlights

• • Normalized estimated winprob for away: ~70.5%
• • EV at current away price (1.32) is negative (~-7%)

Pros

• + Clear market signal favoring the away pair, suggesting a true favorite
• + Decision conservative given lack of additional match-specific data

Cons

• - No available form, injury, or H2H details to justify deviating from the market
• - Bookmaker margin reduces chances of finding value without extra information

Details

We normalize the quoted market prices to remove the bookmaker overround and treat that normalized distribution as our baseline 'true' probabilities because no additional form, H2H, or injury information is available in the research. The market prices (Home 3.15, Away 1.32) imply probabilities of ~0.317 and ~0.758; after normalizing these to sum to 1 we estimate the away pair's win probability at ~0.705 and the home pair at ~0.295. At the current decimal price for the away side (1.32) this gives a negative expected value (EV ≈ -0.07 per 1 unit stake). The home price (3.15) also shows negative EV against our normalized probability. Because neither side shows positive EV at the available prices, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Only surface (clay) is known; no form, rankings, H2H, or injury data provided
• • Market strongly favors the away pair (1.32) leaving little margin for higher true probability
• • Bookmaker overround (~7.5%) means raw implied probabilities exceed 100%; normalization used