D. Martin/N. Mashtakov vs J. Clarke /C. Denolly

Highlights

• • Market-implied home probability: 43.1%; our estimate: 50.0%
• • Positive EV of 0.16 (16% ROI) at current odds 2.32; break-even odds required: 2.000

Pros

• + Clear mispricing vs. the only provided player form (Clarke) suggests value on the home side
• + Current price (2.32) is comfortably above our break-even threshold (2.00)

Cons

• - Research lacks doubles-specific data (partner records, head-to-head, surface), increasing uncertainty
• - Clarke’s poor singles form does not fully determine doubles outcomes; possible hidden strengths from Denolly or matchup nuances

Details

We compare market prices to our read on the matchup. The market prices the home pair (D. Martin/N. Mashtakov) at 2.32 (implied win probability 43.1%) and the away pair (J. Clarke/C. Denolly) at 1.55 (implied 64.5%), but the only substantive research provided shows J. Clarke in poor form (career 10-21, recent losses), which undermines the market’s confidence in the Clarke pairing. We estimate the home pair’s true win probability at 50.0%, above the market-implied 43.1%, creating positive expected value. Calculation: EV = p * odds - 1 = 0.50 * 2.32 - 1 = 0.16 (16% ROI). The minimum decimal odds required to break even on our 50% estimate is 2.000, and the current available price (2.32) exceeds that threshold, so we recommend the home side. Key caveats: doubles form and partner chemistry (Denolly, Martin, Mashtakov) and surface details are not provided, which increases uncertainty and tempers conviction despite the apparent mispricing.

Key factors

• • Provided research shows J. Clarke with poor recent win-loss (10-21), suggesting reduced reliability on the Clarke pairing
• • Market strongly favors Clarke/Denolly (1.55) despite Clarke’s poor form — indicates possible overpricing of the away side
• • Doubles-specific form, partner chemistry, surface and injuries are unknown — increases model uncertainty and risk