Highlights

• • Home at 3.00 vs our fair price 2.857 => small positive edge
• • Edge is modest and sensitive to probability assumptions

Pros

• + Positive expected value at available market price
• + Simple, conservative model reduces chance of overestimating advantage

Cons

• - No match-specific data (form, injuries, H2H, surface) — high uncertainty
• - Edge is small; misestimation of true probability quickly eliminates value

Details

We have no external match data, so we apply conservative, neutral priors. The market makes the away side a heavy favorite at 1.35 (implied ~74.1%). We conservatively estimate the true probability for the home pair at 35% (away 65%) given unknown form/surface and the higher variance in doubles. At a 35% win probability the fair decimal price for the home side is 2.857; the market is offering 3.00, which produces a positive expected value. Calculation: EV = 0.35 * 3.00 - 1 = +0.05 (5% ROI). The margin is modest and driven by limited information, so we treat this as a value pick only because the quoted price exceeds our conservative break-even threshold.

Key factors

• • Market strongly favors the away side (1.35) creating potential underdog value
• • No available external data — our probability is a conservative prior, increasing uncertainty
• • Doubles matches have higher variance and partnership dynamics that can produce pricing inefficiencies