Highlights

• • Home implied probability ~82.6% vs our estimated 75%
• • Required fair price for value is ~1.333 or higher for the favorite

Pros

• + We account for bookmaker margin and limited info with conservative probability
• + Clear numerical test showing negative EV at current favorite price

Cons

• - Estimate is conservative due to lack of surface/form/H2H data and could be off
• - If hidden factors (injury to underdog, pair chemistry) exist, true probability could be higher and change value dynamics

Details

We compare the market price (home 1.21 => implied ~82.6%) to a conservative estimated true win probability for D. Pichler/J. Rodionov of 75%. Given very limited external information, we assume they are the clear favorites but not as overwhelming as the market implies (market prices often include bookmaker margin and can overstate short-priced favorites). At our estimated probability (0.75) the fair decimal price would be ~1.333; the current price of 1.21 produces a negative expected value (EV = 0.75 * 1.21 - 1 = -0.0925), so there is no value on the favorite. The underdog (E. Coulibaly/I. Nortey) at 4.10 would require a true probability >24.39% to be +EV; we estimate their true chance below that threshold given the likely quality gap, so neither side represents positive expected value at the quoted prices. We therefore recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability (home 1.21 => ~82.6%) exceeds our conservative true probability estimate
• • Very limited external information — we downgrade confidence and apply conservative probabilities
• • Bookmaker margin and short-price compression often remove value on heavy favorites