Highlights

• • Home implied probability (1.33) > our conservative estimated probability
• • Fair odds needed for value on home are ~1.389; current 1.33 is too short

Pros

• + Home is the clear market favorite, suggesting higher win probability
• + If new information pushes our true probability above ~75.2%, the home would become a value play

Cons

• - Current price (1.33) is too short relative to our conservative estimate—negative EV
• - No available research data on form, surface suitability, or injuries to justify a more aggressive projection

Details

We estimate this is a clear favorite match but, given the absence of additional form/injury/H2H data and the market price, we adopt a conservative probability for the home pair. The market-implied probability for the home side at 1.33 is ~75.2%. We conservatively estimate the true probability at 72% (reflecting some favoritism but not exceeding the market edge). At that probability the fair odds would be ~1.389, which is higher than the available 1.33, so the current price offers negative expected value. To back the underdog (away) you'd need an estimated true probability substantially above our conservative estimate of ~28% which we do not have evidence for. Therefore we recommend no bet at current prices.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home at 1.33 is ~75.2% (vig included)
• • We apply a conservative true probability of 72% due to no additional research data
• • Required fair odds (1/p) = 1.389 exceed available 1.33, so negative EV on the favorite
• • No independent confirmation of underdog value to justify taking the 3.05 price