D. Brea Senesi/G. Triay Pons vs M. Riera/K. Sharifova
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find modest value on the away pair at 14.0 based on a conservative 8% upset probability, producing ~+12% EV; the market overstates the favorite's certainty.
Highlights
- • Implied away probability 7.14% vs our estimate 8.0%
- • Breakeven odds for away are 12.5; current price 14.0 offers value
Pros
- + Positive EV at current widely available price (14.0)
- + Conservative estimate accounts for doubles volatility and unknowns
Cons
- - Value margin is small — estimate-driven and sensitive to probability variation
- - Lack of match-specific data (injury, form, H2H) increases uncertainty
Details
We compare the bookmaker-implied probabilities to a conservative estimated true probability. The market prices the home pair at 1.01 (implied ~99.0%) and the away pair at 14.0 (implied ~7.14%). Those implied numbers overstate certainty in a sport with inherent variance and limited information. We conservatively estimate the away pair's true win probability at 8.0% (home ~92.0%), which is meaningfully above the implied 7.14%. At the quoted 14.0, that estimated probability produces positive expected value (EV = 0.08 * 14 - 1 = +0.12, or +12% ROI). Given the lack of injury/form/H2H detail, we err on the side of caution with a modest upset probability but still find value because the price (14.0) exceeds the minimum breakeven odds (12.5) for our estimate.
Key factors
- • Bookmaker implied probability for away (7.14%) is slightly below our conservative estimated chance (8.0%)
- • Tennis doubles contains higher variance and upset potential than single implied by 1.01 pricing
- • No injury/form/H2H data provided — we apply conservative uncertainty rather than trusting near-certain market price