D. Brea Senesi/G. Triay Pons vs S. Araujo/A. Ustero Prieto

Highlights

• • Away implied chance (8.5) = 11.76%, our estimate = 6.0% → priced too short for value
• • Home would need true win probability >95.24% to be +EV at 1.05, which we do not assign

Pros

• + Avoids taking on negative-expected-value wagers in a highly uncertain matchup
• + Clear threshold provided (min_required_decimal_odds) if better odds appear

Cons

• - Conservative estimate may miss rare genuine longshot value if unknown factors favour the away side
• - No live/in-depth data used — decision rests on cautious assumptions

Details

Market prices show a near-certain home favorite at 1.05 (implied 95.24%) and an away underdog at 8.5 (implied 11.76%). With no external data returned and lacking surface/form/injury/H2H detail, we apply conservative assumptions. We estimate the away pair's true win probability at 6.0% (0.06) and therefore the home probability at 94.0% (0.94). At these estimates the away's EV = 0.06*8.5 - 1 = -0.49 (negative) and the home EV = 0.94*1.05 - 1 = -0.013 (negative). To find value on the away side we would need decimal odds ≈ 16.667; for the home side we would need a true win probability >95.238% to justify wagering at 1.05. Given our conservative probabilities and the current prices, neither side offers positive expected value, so we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors the home pair (1.05) implying ~95.24% win chance
• • No external match-specific data returned — must use conservative assumptions
• • Underdog would require >16.667 decimal odds to be +EV at our 6% estimate