D. Brea Senesi/G. Triay Pons vs T. Icardo Alcorisa/M. Ortega Gallego

Highlights

• • Market implies ~82.6% for the home pair; our conservative estimate is ~78%
• • Current odds (1.21) produce roughly -5.6% ROI on our estimate — avoid betting

Pros

• + Clear, heavily-favored market price reduces ambiguity about likely winner
• + If additional confirming info appears (injury, lineup change) re-evaluation is straightforward

Cons

• - No value at current prices — negative expected return on the favorite
• - Lack of match-specific research (surface, form, injuries, H2H) increases uncertainty

Details

The market prices the home pair at 1.21, implying a win probability of ~82.6%. Given no external form, surface, injury or H2H data and taking a conservative stance, we estimate the true win probability for the home pair at ~78.0%. At that probability the fair price is ~1.282, which is above the available 1.21, so the current market understates the away chance and overvalues the favorite. EV at the quoted home odds is negative (≈ -5.6% ROI per unit), so there is no value to back the favorite. The away side would need an implied probability ≥24.39% (decimal ≥4.10) to be profitable; with the favorite still likely stronger than the underdog, we do not see the away price offering value either. With no additional match-specific information, we recommend no bet.

Key factors

• • Market-implied probability for home (1/1.21 ≈ 82.6%) vs our conservative estimate (78%)
• • No external data on surface, form, injuries or H2H available — increases uncertainty
• • Required fair decimal (≈1.282) is higher than offered price (1.21), producing negative EV