D. Bredberg Canizares/M. Sawant vs V. Losciale/M. Oliver Sanchez
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: After removing the bookie's margin and with limited information beyond surface, both sides are negative EV at the listed prices; we recommend no bet.
Highlights
- • Normalized market probabilities: Home ~43.02%, Away ~56.98%
- • Required odds for value on the home side are ~2.325; current is 2.16 (no value)
Pros
- + Analysis is conservative and accounts for bookmaker overround
- + Avoids betting when no observable edge exists given limited data
Cons
- - Limited research inputs (only surface and quoted odds) constrain accuracy
- - If unseen factors (injury, late withdrawal, form) are present, our neutral stance may miss an edge
Details
We have only the surface (outdoor clay) and market odds to work with, so we normalize the market prices to remove the bookmaker overround and derive our best estimate of true win probabilities. Current decimals imply an overround; after normalization we estimate the home pair (D. Bredberg Canizares/M. Sawant) has ~43.02% and the away pair ~56.98%. At the quoted prices (Home 2.16, Away 1.63) both sides produce negative expected value versus our probabilities (EV ≈ -7.1% for the home side, ≈ -7.13% for the away side). With no additional form, injury, or H2H information to justify deviating from the normalized market, there is no positive value at the current public prices, so we do not recommend a bet.
Key factors
- • Only available contextual input is surface (outdoor clay); no form/injury/H2H data provided
- • Market has an overround; normalized probabilities give Home ~43.02% / Away ~56.98%
- • Both sides produce negative ROI at quoted decimals (no positive expected value)