D. Burtsev/J. Manuel vs V. De Carvalho/A. Nagel
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not find value on either side given conservative probability estimates; the favorite is priced too short and the underdog not long enough to offer positive EV.
Highlights
- • Away market price (1.30) implies a higher win probability than our conservative estimate
- • Underdog price (3.25) falls short of the minimum fair odds needed for value
Pros
- + Market clearly identifies a favorite, reducing ambiguity if additional data appears
- + Conservative probability avoids over-committing on limited information
Cons
- - No match-specific data (surface, recent form, pair chemistry, injuries) to refine estimates
- - Potential overlooked edges could exist but are unverifiable without more info
Details
We compared the market prices (Home 3.25, Away 1.30) to a conservative estimated true probability for the market favorite (Away). With no external form, surface, H2H or injury data available, we adopt a conservative assessment that the away pair V. De Carvalho/A. Nagel have roughly a 72% chance to win this match (p = 0.72). That estimate implies a fair decimal price of 1.389 (1/p). The current away price of 1.30 is shorter than the fair price, producing a negative expected value (EV = p * odds - 1). The home underdog price (3.25) likewise does not reach the minimum required odds (3.571) implied by our conservative estimated probability for the underdog, so neither side shows positive value at current market prices. Given the lack of match-specific data, we prefer to avoid betting here rather than rely on speculative adjustments.
Key factors
- • No external information on form, surface, injuries or H2H — we use conservative priors
- • Market heavily favors the away pair (implied probability ~76.9%)
- • Our conservative true-probability estimate (72%) implies current favorite price is too short