D. Charalampopoulos/A. Jakovleva vs T. Kashyap/A. Wirges

Highlights

• • Away implied probability 95.24% vs our estimate 92% → negative EV at current price
• • Market overround (~6.3%) further erodes any marginal edge

Pros

• + Clear market consensus on the favorite reduces informational uncertainty about matchup strength
• + Short price on the favorite reflects real expectation of a straightforward outcome

Cons

• - Odds on the favorite are too short to offer positive EV under conservative assumptions
• - No independent info (form/injuries/H2H) to justify downgrading the favorite enough to find value

Details

We conservatively estimate the away pair (T. Kashyap/A. Wirges) as strong favorites but not as certain as the market odds imply. The market prices are Home 9.00 (implied ~11.11%) and Away 1.05 (implied ~95.24%), producing an overround of ~6.3%, which indicates heavy book margin. With no external form or injury data available, we assume a cautious true win probability for the away side of 92.0% (0.92). At the quoted away odds of 1.05, the expected return is 0.92 * 1.05 - 1 = -0.034 (a -3.4% ROI), so there is no positive expected value. For the home side to be +EV at 9.00 we would need a true win probability above 11.11%; given the extreme market gap and absence of contradictory information, we are not comfortable assigning that high a probability to the underdog. Therefore we recommend no bet — current prices do not offer value relative to our conservative probability assessment.

Key factors

• • Market heavily favors away at 1.05 (implied ~95.24%), creating a large overround (~6.3%)
• • No external data available; we use a conservative true probability estimate (92%) that is lower than market-implied
• • At current odds the favorite yields negative expected value; underdog would need >11.11% true chance to be +EV