Highlights

• • Implied home probability (1.98) = 50.5%; our estimate = 53.0%
• • Estimated EV ≈ 4.9% when staking at current home odds

Pros

• + Current home odds (1.98) are above our fair-value threshold (1.887)
• + Conservative assumptions limit overconfidence while still identifying small edge

Cons

• - No match-specific data (form, injuries, H2H, surface stats) available to refine probability
• - Edge is modest; variance in doubles and unknowns could quickly negate the advantage

Details

No external research was available, so we apply conservative assumptions and a small home-advantage adjustment for a doubles match in Bagneres-De-Bigorre. The market prices imply probabilities of ~50.5% for the home side (1.98) and ~57.1% for the away side (1.75). We estimate the home pair's true win probability at 53.0% based on a neutral baseline (50%) plus a modest home/venue adjustment and the expectation that bookmakers price short-term unknowns into the favorite. At our estimated p=0.53 the fair decimal price is 1.887; the current home price of 1.98 therefore appears to offer value. Calculation: EV = 0.53 * 1.98 - 1 = 0.049 (≈4.9% edge). Given the lack of match-specific data, we keep the edge modest and label the risk as medium.

Key factors

• • No external match data available; assumptions are conservative
• • Market-implied probabilities: home 50.5% vs away 57.1%; home price contains potential value
• • Small home/venue adjustment and market inefficiency assumed for doubles