Highlights

• • Estimated true probability (home): 54.0%
• • Required minimum decimal odds for value (home): 1.852 — market is 1.76

Pros

• + Home is a slight favorite under conservative assumptions
• + Market price is a commonly available book price (liquid), easy to check if it drifts

Cons

• - Current odds do not produce positive expected value versus our estimate
• - Lack of match-specific data increases uncertainty in the probability estimate

Details

We estimate the home pair (D. Evtimova/V. Sandberg) to be a slight favorite but, using conservative assumptions due to no form, surface or injury data, we assign them a 54.0% true win probability. The market decimals (Home 1.76, Away 1.98) imply ~56.8% for the home side, so the quoted home price is slightly short of our estimate and does not offer positive expected value. EV calculation for the home at the available price: EV = 0.54 * 1.76 - 1 = -0.05 (negative). To be a value bet we would need at least decimal 1.852 for the home side; current 1.76 is below that threshold. Given the absence of external data and the small margin between our probability and the market, we decline to recommend a side.

Key factors

• • No external form, head-to-head, surface or injury data available — we use conservative priors
• • Market-implied probability for home (1.76) is ~56.8%, slightly richer than our 54.0% estimate
• • Small gap between our estimate and the market plus bookmaker juice removes positive EV