Dabin Kim vs Suha Lee
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We do not recommend betting on Dabin Kim at 1.17 — the market implies a much higher win probability than supported by Kim's record and recent form. No value exists at current prices given the data provided.
Highlights
- • Book implied probability: ~85.5% (1.17)
- • Our estimated true probability: 35%; required fair odds would be ~2.857 or higher
Pros
- + Strong market confidence in the home player suggests bookmakers see a clear favorite
- + If hidden contextual factors (injury to opponent, surface advantage) exist, the market price could be justified
Cons
- - Provided performance data (10-21) does not support an 85%+ win probability
- - No information on Suha Lee or compelling form indicators to justify the heavy favorite price
Details
We estimate Dabin Kim's true chance to win at roughly 35% based on the available career record (10-21 across 31 matches, ~32% win rate) and poor recent form. The market price of 1.17 implies a win probability of ~85.5% (1 / 1.17 = 0.8547), which is far above our assessed probability and therefore offers negative expected value. With no data on Suha Lee to justify a large skew in Kim's favor and no surface or injury information that would materially uplift Kim's chances, we cannot justify backing the 1.17 quote. To be positive EV at current odds, Kim would need a true-win probability above ~85.5%, which is incompatible with the provided performance metrics.
Key factors
- • Career win rate 10-21 (31 matches) implying ~32% baseline win probability
- • Recent form shows primarily losses in the provided sample; no signs of a hot streak
- • Current market price (1.17) implies ~85.5% win probability, a large disconnect from observed performance