Highlights

• • Sumizawa has a much larger professional sample (18-17 overall) compared with Katayama (0-2).
• • At decimal 1.86 our conservative win-probability estimate (62%) gives an EV of +15.3%.

Pros

• + Noticeable experience and match-play advantage for Sumizawa
• + Current market odds are balanced, creating exploitable value for the more experienced player

Cons

• - Recent detailed form for Sumizawa shows some recent losses, reducing confidence upside
• - Small-sample noise: Katayama's low match count could hide unknown upside or matchup quirks

Details

We view Daisuke Sumizawa as the clear-value side given the available evidence. Sumizawa has a substantially larger match sample (35 matches, 18-17) and consistent play on hard courts, while Sho Katayama has only two recorded pro matches (0-2) and no wins on the same surface. The market prices both players identically at 1.86, which implies a 53.76% market probability each — but the experience and track record gap justify a materially higher true probability for Sumizawa. Conservatively estimating Sumizawa's win probability at 62.0% (reflecting his deeper match history, proven ability on hard courts, and Katayama's inexperience at this level), the current decimal odds of 1.86 produce a positive expected value: EV = 0.62 * 1.86 - 1 = 0.153. Therefore the market appears to underprice Sumizawa and offers value at the quoted 1.86.

Key factors

• • Large experience gap: Sumizawa 35 matches vs Katayama 2 matches
• • Hard-court experience: both recorded matches on hard, but Sumizawa has sustained results
• • Market odds are symmetric (1.86 each) despite asymmetric profiles