Dalila Jakupovic / Nika Radisic vs Amina Anshba / Eden Silva
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We find value on the away pair (Anshba/Silva) at 6.10 — our conservative 30% win probability implies a +0.83 EV versus the market-implied ~16%.
Highlights
- • Bookmaker implied probability for away: ~16%
- • Our conservative estimate for away win chance: 30% -> clear positive EV
Pros
- + Large disconnect between market price and our assessed probability
- + No research-based indicators supporting the heavy favoritism toward the home pairing
Cons
- - Player profiles provided are sparse and similar — uncertainty remains high
- - Doubles chemistry and pair-specific history not available in the research, increasing model risk
Details
The market prices the home pair at implied 86.1% and the away pair at 16.4% (6.10 decimal). The available player profiles in research show near-identical records and no clear dominance by the home pairing; there is no data indicating injuries, strong recent doubles form, or head-to-head edges that would justify such a large gap. The book's pricing therefore appears inflated in favor of the home side. We conservatively estimate the away pair's true win probability at 30%; at decimal 6.10 this produces a positive expected value (EV = 0.30 * 6.10 - 1 = +0.83). Given the large discrepancy between implied and our estimated probability, the away side represents value.
Key factors
- • Market heavily favors home (implied 86%) despite research showing similarly poor/neutral records for both pairs
- • No evidence in provided profiles of recent form, injuries, or H2H that would justify the large price gap
- • Decimal 6.10 offers substantial upside if true probability is materially above the market's ~16%