Dalila Jakupovic / Nika Radisic vs Freya Christie / Anita Wagner

Highlights

• • Market-implied away probability ~33.2%; our estimate 38%
• • Estimated EV ≈ +14.4% per unit at current odds

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at current widely-available price
• + Research shows no convincing form or record advantage for the heavy favorite

Cons

• - Player-level data is limited and not doubles-specific, increasing uncertainty
• - Bookmaker margin and short home price indicate market confidence that could reflect unlisted factors

Details

We assess value on the away pair (Freya Christie / Anita Wagner). The market prices the away team at 3.01 (implied ~33.2%), while the home pair is a strong favorite at 1.347 (~74.3%). The player profiles in the research show broadly similar career records and recent form across all four players (roughly 10-22 or 10-21), with no clear evidence in the provided data that the home team deserves such a large gap. Given the lack of a clear performance gap, plus the bookmaker margin embedded in the two-way market, we estimate the away pair's true win probability materially above the market-implied 33%. Using a conservative advantage estimate (38%), the away price of 3.01 offers positive expected value. We therefore back the away team only because EV > 0 at the current quoted price; the home price is too short to represent value relative to our estimate.

Key factors

• • Both pairs show very similar career win-loss records and recent form in the provided data
• • Market heavily favors the home pair (1.347) despite no supporting performance differential in the research
• • Current away price (3.01) is above our fair-odds threshold, creating positive expected value