Dalila Jakupovic vs Maja Chwalinska
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We see value on Maja Chwalinska at 1.14 because her experience and superior career form justify a higher win probability than the market-implied price, producing a small positive edge.
Highlights
- • Chwalinska's extensive match history and winning record vs Jakupovic's limited, losing sample
- • Current price (1.14) implies less chance than our estimated true probability, giving ~4.9% ROI
Pros
- + Positive expected value at current widely-available price
- + Low variance pick given strong favorite status and experience gap
Cons
- - Small absolute payout / low profit per unit staked
- - Uncertainty from one-off match factors (fitness, conditions) not detailed in the research
Details
The market heavily favors Maja Chwalinska at 1.14 (implied ~87.7%). From the supplied profiles, Chwalinska has a long, positive career record (559-507) across all surfaces and consistent Challenger-level activity; Jakupovic is a much smaller-sample player this season (10-22) with limited recent success. Both have recent Challenger hard-court matches, but the experience and win-rate gap make Chwalinska materially more likely to win than the market-implied probability. We estimate Chwalinska's true win probability at ~92%, which exceeds the market-implied 87.7%, producing positive expected value on the away moneyline at current decimal odds of 1.14.
Key factors
- • Large career and match-volume advantage for Chwalinska (559-507 vs 10-22)
- • Both players recently on hard-court Challengers but Jakupovic's recent form is weak
- • Market-implied probability (87.7%) is below our estimated win probability (~92%)