Highlights

• • Tikhonova's career depth and win rate materially exceed Spiteri's small sample record
• • Current away odds (2.04) imply ~49% while our true probability is ~60%, creating clear value

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at current price (EV +0.224)
• + Experience and consistency edge in a qualifier setting

Cons

• - Limited recent-match/context detail and no head-to-head available
• - Qualifiers can be volatile; single-match variance and form swings are possible

Details

Market prices make the home player (Spiteri) the favorite at implied 57.1% (1/1.752) while the away price for Tikhonova implies ~49.0% (1/2.04). We assign Tikhonova a substantially higher true win probability (60%) based on her large career sample, positive long-term win rate (559-507 across many surfaces), and greater experience compared with Spiteri's small sample (10-21) and recent weak results. Both players show recent losses in the limited research, but the gap in career performance and experience on comparable surfaces leads us to conclude the market is underpricing Tikhonova here. At our 60% estimate, the required fair odds are ~1.667; the available 2.04 therefore offers clear value (EV = 0.6*2.04 - 1 = +0.224). We acknowledge variance in qualifiers and limited head-to-head/contextual matchup data, so we rate the pick as medium risk despite the positive edge.

Key factors

• • Substantially larger career sample and higher long-term win rate for Tikhonova (559-507) vs Spiteri (10-21)
• • Both players show recent losses, but experience and match toughness favor Tikhonova in qualifiers
• • Market-implied probability for Tikhonova (~49%) is below our estimate (60%), creating value at 2.04