Highlights

• • Estimated true win probability for Wenger ~56.2% vs market 47.6%
• • Calculated EV on Wenger at current price: ~+18% ROI

Pros

• + Clear positive EV at the provided 2.10 price based on supplied statistics
• + Wenger's stronger win rate over his shorter sample suggests higher underlying quality

Cons

• - No grass-specific results for either player in the provided research — increased surface uncertainty
• - No H2H or injury/fitness details provided; model is based on limited profile data

Details

We see value backing Damien Wenger at 2.10. Using only the provided profiles, Wenger has an 18-12 (0.600) career win rate over 30 matches while Maxime Chazal is 22-25 (0.468) over 47 matches. Converting those raw win rates into a simple head-to-head probability share (0.600 / (0.600+0.468)) gives Wenger an estimated true win probability of ~56.2%. The market price of 2.10 implies a 47.6% chance, so the price overstates Chazal and understates Wenger. Adjustments: neither player has documented recent grass results in the supplied data and there is no H2H or injury information, which increases uncertainty, but the gap in per-match win rate and Chazal's middling recent form (multiple listed losses) support a lean to Wenger. At our estimated probability, EV = 0.562*2.10 - 1 = +0.180 (≈18% ROI), so a bet on Wenger is a value play at the quoted prices.

Key factors

• • Wenger's higher raw win rate (18-12 vs 22-25)
• • Book odds favor Chazal (1.704) despite Wenger's better win percentage
• • Both players lack documented grass-track results in the supplied data, increasing variance