Dan Added vs Kyrian Jacquet

Highlights

• • Market-implied probability for Added (39.2%) is well below our 45% estimate
• • Positive expected value at current odds: EV ≈ +0.148 per unit staked

Pros

• + Clear superiority in career win rate and much larger match sample size
• + Current price (2.55) offers a buffer versus our estimated probability

Cons

• - Match is on grass and research shows Added lacks grass experience while Jacquet does
• - Recent form details in the provided data are mixed for both players and not conclusive

Details

We identify value backing Dan Added (home) at 2.55 because the market-implied probability (1/2.55 = 39.2%) appears to understate his true win chance. From the provided data Dan Added has a larger sample size (85 matches) and a superior career win rate (57-28 = ~67.1%) versus Kyrian Jacquet's 26-20 (~55.3%), which indicates a materially stronger baseline level. While surface is a handicap factor—Jacquet has grass listed among his surfaces and Added does not—Added's clear advantage in overall win rate and much bigger match sample lead us to estimate his true win probability substantially above the market price. Comparing our estimated true probability (45.0%) to the market-implied 39.2% produces a positive expected value: EV = 0.45 * 2.55 - 1 = +0.1475 (≈14.8% ROI). Given the available prices, we therefore recommend the home side as a value play, while noting the surface mismatch and limited recent form clarity as risk offsets.

Key factors

• • Dan Added has a larger career sample and higher overall win rate (57-28, ~67%) compared to Jacquet (26-20, ~55%)
• • Current market price for Added (2.55) implies ~39.2% win probability, below our estimated 45%
• • Surface is grass and Jacquet has grass experience while Added's record lacks grass — this is the main source of downside risk