Dan Added vs Stan Wawrinka

Highlights

• • Wawrinka heavily favored by market at 1.241 (implied ~80.6%)
• • Our fair odds for Added (≈2.78) are far shorter than the offered 4.1, producing +47.6% EV

Pros

• + Large discrepancy between market price and our estimated fair price, creating clear positive EV
• + Added's stronger win-loss figures in the supplied data support an underdog argument

Cons

• - Both players lack grass results in the provided research, making estimates less certain
• - Wawrinka's pacing, experience, and unquantified physical condition could tilt the match despite raw records

Details

The market price heavily favors Stan Wawrinka at 1.241 (implied ~80.6%). Using only the provided research, Dan Added has a substantially better overall win-loss profile in the supplied data (57-28 vs Wawrinka's 21-24) and recent form shown in the notes is mixed for both, with no clear dominance by Wawrinka. Neither player has documented grass results in the research, increasing variance and reducing the weight of name/familiarity that likely moved the market price. Conservatively converting the record and form information into an estimated win probability for Added (36%) yields a min required decimal price of ~2.778; the available 4.1 therefore offers significant value (EV = 0.36*4.1 - 1 = +0.476 or +47.6% ROI). We recommend betting Dan Added only because the current price materially exceeds our fair odds based on the supplied data.

Key factors

• • Dan Added's superior win-loss record in the provided research (57-28) compared to Wawrinka (21-24)
• • Market implies ~80.6% for Wawrinka (1.241) which appears overstated given the supplied form data
• • No documented grass experience for either player in the research, increasing outcome variance and reducing predictive certainty