Dan Added vs Stanislas Wawrinka
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: We recommend backing Dan Added at 3.8 — our conservative estimate gives him ~55% to win, so the current price represents strong value versus the market-implied ~26% for the home side.
Highlights
- • Large gap between market-implied probabilities and supplied career records
- • Home price 3.8 requires only ~26.3% win probability to be profitable; our estimate is ~55%
Pros
- + Substantial edge vs. market pricing based on supplied win-loss data
- + Both players have hard-court experience in the research, reducing surface uncertainty
Cons
- - Research data is limited and recent-match details are incomplete; outcome variability remains
- - Wawrinka's experience and match-day factors (form/injury) could still tilt result despite records
Details
We see a clear pricing gap between the market and the player records provided. The market price (Stanislas Wawrinka at 1.25 -> implied 80% win probability) strongly favors Wawrinka, but the supplied career records show Dan Added with a 57-28 career mark (≈67% win rate) versus Wawrinka's 21-24 (≈45.7%). Both players have recent hard-court matches in the dataset and no explicit injury details are provided. Given Dan Added's superior win-loss profile in the research and comparable surface exposure, we view the market as overestimating Wawrinka here. Using a conservative blended estimate that still favors Dan Added (estimated true win probability 55%), the current home price of 3.8 offers substantial positive expected value. Odds used for EV: 3.8 (home moneyline).
Key factors
- • Dan Added career record 57-28 in supplied data (~67% win rate)
- • Stanislas Wawrinka career record 21-24 in supplied data (~45.7% win rate)
- • Both players have recent hard-court activity in the provided research; no injuries listed