Dane Sweeny vs Marc Polmans
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: No value at current prices; Sweeny’s implied market price is slightly better than our conservative estimate of his true chance, so we pass unless odds move to ≥1.667 for Sweeny.
Highlights
- • Sweeny: stronger overall record and larger match sample
- • Current favorite price (1.606) is just inside a fair range but not profitable versus our 60% estimate
Pros
- + Sweeny’s higher career win percentage suggests a small edge
- + Both players’ profiles include hard-court play, reducing surface uncertainty
Cons
- - Recent match snippets show mixed results, limiting confidence above 60%
- - Market already prices the favorite tightly; little margin for error
Details
We compare current market prices (Dane Sweeny 1.606, Marc Polmans 2.20) to our read of the players from the provided profiles. Dane Sweeny has a larger sample (71 matches) and a higher career win rate (42-29 ≈ 59.2%) versus Marc Polmans (24-20 ≈ 54.5%), and both have hard-court experience in the research. However, the market odds for Sweeny (1.606, implied ≈62.3%) are close to or slightly better than a conservative estimated true probability given the available data. Using a balanced estimate of Sweeny’s true win probability at 60.0% (reflecting his stronger career record but mixed recent results), the break-even decimal price would be ~1.667; the current 1.606 does not provide positive expected value. Therefore we do not recommend backing either side at current prices — the favorite margin is too thin relative to our probability estimate. If the market moves to 1.667 or longer for Sweeny (or shorter than 1/Polmans true p), value would appear.
Key factors
- • Sweeny has a larger sample size and higher career win rate (42-29 vs 24-20)
- • Both players have hard-court experience in their profiles; surface familiarity is similar
- • Recent form is mixed for Sweeny and shows some losses for Polmans, so advantage is present but modest