Dane Sweeny vs Pavle Marinkov
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: Market prices overvalue Sweeny relative to the evidence provided; no side offers positive expected value at current odds.
Highlights
- • Sweeny is the stronger player in the supplied profiles, but not by enough to justify 1.186.
- • To be +EV on the underdog (4.31) we'd need stronger evidence Marinkov's win chance exceeds ~23.2%, which is not present.
Pros
- + Clear favorite in supplied career statistics
- + Both players' surface histories are similar, reducing unknowns tied to surface mismatch
Cons
- - Market price for Sweeny implies an extreme probability (84%+) not supported by the provided records
- - Insufficient specific head-to-head or recent-form advantage data to justify backing the underdog
Details
We estimate Dane Sweeny is the clear favorite given career form (42-29) versus Pavle Marinkov (21-24) and both players' experience on hard/grass, but the market price for Sweeny (1.186, implied win probability ~84.3%) overstates the evidence in the provided data. Using the available career win rates and recent results, we estimate Sweeny's true win probability at ~68%, implying fair odds ~1.471. At the current home price (1.186) EV is negative (we compute EV = 0.68 * 1.186 - 1 = -0.194), so backing Sweeny is unprofitable. The away price (4.31, implied ~23.2%) would be attractive only if Marinkov's true win chance exceeded ~23.2%; while that is plausible in some matchups, the supplied records and form do not provide a credible basis to assign him that high a chance relative to Sweeny. Therefore we recommend no wager as current prices do not present positive expected value based on the provided research.
Key factors
- • Dane Sweeny has superior career record in provided data (42-29 vs 21-24)
- • Both players listed with experience on hard/grass—surface does not swing obvious advantage
- • Market-implied probability for Sweeny (84.3%) is substantially higher than our estimated true probability (~68%)