Dane Sweeny vs Filip Peliwo

Highlights

• • Market overprices Dane Sweeny at 1.32 given similar player profiles
• • Peliwo at 3.15 offers a substantial edge vs our probability estimate

Pros

• + Clear positive expected value at the available away price (EV ≈ +0.26)
• + No injury/surface concerns in supplied research to justify market favoritism

Cons

• - Limited head-to-head and contextual data in the provided sources increases uncertainty
• - Tennis match variance can still produce short-term losses despite positive EV

Details

The market heavily favors Dane Sweeny at 1.32 (implied ~75.8%), but the underlying data in the provided profiles does not support such a large edge: both players have very similar career win rates (~59%) and recent results on hard courts are comparable. We estimate Filip Peliwo's true chance at ~40% (Dane ~60%), which is materially higher than the market-implied probability for Peliwo of ~31.7% (3.15). Using the quoted away price of 3.15, the EV = 0.40 * 3.15 - 1 = +0.26 (26% ROI on a 1-unit stake), so the away price shows clear positive value relative to our probability model. There are no injury flags or surface mismatches in the supplied research to justify the market's large lean toward Sweeny, so we view the underdog price as mispriced value.

Key factors

• • Career win rates for both players are nearly identical (~59%), so a 75% market probability for Sweeny is unlikely
• • Both players have recent activity on hard courts; no injury or surface disadvantage reported for Peliwo
• • Market-implied probability for Peliwo at 3.15 (~31.7%) is well below our estimated true probability (40%), producing positive EV