Dane Sweeny vs Noah Brownrigg
Summary
Current Odds
Match Info
Analysis
Summary: There is a very small positive edge on Dane Sweeny at 1.08 based on experience and records; the expected value is marginal (+0.44% per unit).
Highlights
- • Sweeny has overwhelming experience advantage and a far larger match sample.
- • Current price (1.08) offers a tiny positive EV versus our 93% win estimate.
Pros
- + Clear experience and match-volume advantage for Sweeny
- + Market price is marginally generous relative to our probability estimate
Cons
- - Edge is very small — near break-even and sensitive to probability estimation error
- - Limited public injury/form detail increases uncertainty despite sample gap
Details
We estimate Dane Sweeny is substantially the stronger player: far greater match volume (71 matches, 42-29) versus Noah Brownrigg's extremely limited sample (3 matches, 1-2). Both have experience on hard/grass, but Brownrigg's tiny sample and losing record increase uncertainty against a more seasoned opponent. The market price of 1.08 implies a win probability of ~92.6% (1/1.08). We estimate Sweeny's true win probability at 93.0% based on experience, head-to-head absence, and recent form divergence; at that probability a 1.08 price yields a small positive edge (EV = 0.93*1.08 - 1 = +0.0044). The edge is marginal but present given the wide experience and form gap and Brownrigg's lack of match history.
Key factors
- • Large experience gap: Sweeny 71 matches vs Brownrigg 3 matches
- • Win-loss differential: Sweeny 42-29 vs Brownrigg 1-2
- • Both players listed on hard/grass, favoring Sweeny's broader sample
- • Market price (1.08) implies ~92.6% — our model slightly higher at 93.0%